Asymmetric Effects of Governance on International Migration in Africa: A Regional Analysis

Abstract

This study assesses the asymmetric effects of governance on net migration across five African regions using panel data from 1996 to 2023. Grounded in neoclassical migration theory, push-pull frameworks, and institutionalist perspectives, the research applies dynamic non-stationary heterogeneous panel estimators where Mean Group(MG) estimator was found to be more efficient based on the results of the Hausman test. The study also tests for heterogeneity, causality, and long-run equilibrium relationships. Findings from the study confirm that governance, population growth, unemployment, and income differentials significantly predict migration flows, though with region-specific dynamics. The study also found that negative governance shocks (deterioration in governance such as institutional decay) exert stronger and more immediate effects on reducing net migration (or increasing net out-migration) than positive governance reform, especially in fragile states. Demographic pressures and unemployment remain consistent long-run drivers of outward migration, particularly in Eastern and Western Africa, while income convergence reduces migration incentives. The study recommends that policymakers should implement regionally tailored, governance-driven reforms that promote institutional accountability, manage demographic pressures through education and health investments, create inclusive jobs via labor-intensive growth, reduce income disparities with pro-poor macroeconomic policies, and adopt flexible regional migration protocols linked to political stability.